01 April 2026
The latest edition of the CFA Italy - Radiocor Sentiment Index, conducted by CFA Society Italy in collaboration with Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor, signals a marked reversal in market sentiment. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has emerged as a major disruptive factor, reshaping both the perception of current macroeconomic conditions and, more significantly, expectations for the months ahead.
Survey data collected between 19 and 31 March 2026 show a cautious assessment of the present economic environment. Forty percent of respondents view the Italian economy as negative, while 52% consider it stable. A similar tone of prudence extends to the Euro Area and the United States, both perceived as weakening compared to previous months.
The most significant shift, however, lies in forward-looking expectations. The sentiment index for Italy has fallen to -79.2 points, marking a drop of over 75 points compared to the previous survey and reaching its lowest level since the index was established in 2015. This represents a deterioration even more severe than levels recorded during the most critical phases of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Only 4.2% of respondents expect an improvement in the Italian economy over the next six months, while 12.5% anticipate stability. A decisive majority - 83.3% - now foresee a worsening outlook. Similar dynamics are observed across the Euro Area and the United States, pointing to a broad-based deterioration in global economic expectations.
Inflation expectations have also shifted significantly. After months of relative stabilization, analysts now anticipate rising price pressures across all major regions. This change is accompanied by a reassessment of monetary policy trajectories, with expectations of higher short-term interest rates in Italy, the Euro Area and the United States. Long-term yields are also seen increasing, reflecting growing pressure on bond markets.
Financial market expectations have adjusted accordingly. Equity markets, which had shown resilience in recent months, are now expected to enter a corrective phase across major geographies. In foreign exchange markets, the outlook for the US dollar has stabilized against the euro, while expectations for a strengthening of the Japanese yen remain in place.
Interestingly, despite heightened geopolitical tensions and rising inflation expectations, the majority of respondents foresee a decline in oil prices. This outlook may reflect expectations of a normalization following recent increases, as well as concerns about a potential slowdown in global demand.
Overall, the April 2026 Sentiment Index highlights a sharp shift in the outlook of financial professionals. Geopolitical developments have reintroduced uncertainty at a global level, triggering a reassessment of growth prospects, inflation dynamics and market performance. For investors and policymakers alike, the message is clear: the macroeconomic environment has entered a more fragile and complex phase, where expectations can change rapidly and require close monitoring.
The full survey can be found here.
