05 May 2026
The latest edition of the CFA Italy - Radiocor Sentiment Index, conducted by CFA Society Italy in collaboration with Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor, highlights a cautious but improving outlook among financial professionals. While the current macroeconomic environment remains fragile, expectations for the next six months have strengthened compared to the previous survey.
The survey, carried out between 20 and 30 April 2026, reflects a still challenging present. Sixty-four percent of respondents consider the Italian economy to be in negative territory, while 32% describe it as stable. A similar assessment applies to both the Euro Area and the United States, where economic conditions continue to be perceived as weak, partly due to ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Despite this backdrop, the most notable development concerns the evolution of expectations. The sentiment index for Italy remains negative at -32 points, but shows a significant recovery of 47 points compared to the historic low recorded in April. This rebound suggests a partial improvement in confidence, supported in part by expectations that tensions in the Middle East may ease in the coming months.
Looking at the breakdown, 12% of respondents now expect an improvement in the Italian economy, while the share of those anticipating a stable scenario has risen markedly to 44%. The proportion of pessimistic views has declined significantly, also standing at 44%, indicating a more balanced distribution of expectations compared to the previous month. Similar dynamics are observed for the Euro Area and the United States.
Inflation remains a central concern, although expectations have moderated. Between 70% and 75% of respondents still anticipate rising prices across all regions, but this represents a decline compared to April. Consistent with this outlook, expectations for interest rate increases - both short-term and long-term - remain in place, albeit with reduced intensity.
Financial market sentiment has also improved. After a period of negative expectations, outlooks for equity markets have turned positive across all major regions, suggesting a gradual return of risk appetite among investors.
Oil prices continue to be closely monitored, with around half of respondents expecting a decline from current levels. Such a scenario could help mitigate stagflationary pressures, particularly if driven by a normalization of demand dynamics.
In foreign exchange markets, expectations have shifted as well. While the Japanese yen is now expected to remain broadly stable against the euro, forecasts point to a renewed depreciation of the US dollar, reversing the “risk-off” dynamics observed in the previous month.
Overall, the May 2026 Sentiment Index points to a more nuanced picture: a still fragile present, but a cautiously improving outlook. For investment professionals, this suggests that while macroeconomic risks remain elevated, the sharp deterioration in confidence seen in April may have marked a turning point, with expectations gradually stabilizing in a complex and evolving global environment.
